Examination Of William Shakespeare s Othello - 1822 Words

Danielle Lemmon Prof. Jacobs World Lit section 205 18 April 2016 Examination of William Shakespeare s Othello In the world we live in, we value family, friendship, and romantic love with that special someone. Trust and good communication plays vital role in maintaining our relationships with the people we care about and vice versa. Even in today s society gender roles play a vital role in our relationships with other people. However, once that trust turns into betrayal, our whole perspective of that loved one will be changed. With this in mind, it is clear that Shakespeare s stories are out of date, but in William Shakespeare s play Othello he demonstrates the importance of loyalty, betrayal, and demonstrates how this story can be relevant in today s society. Othello is a story of love, jealousy, trust and betrayal. The reason Othello does not investigate Iago s accusations towards Desdemona s betrayal because of the lack of communication in their relationship, Othello s duty as a soldier and the double standard between men and women prevents him from seeking proof of Desdemona s so called a ffair with Cassio. The culture in which individuals live in can affect the communication between people. All of us take part in conversations that we regret (Harkins 64). One reason, that prevents Othello from seeking proof of Desdemona s so called affair with Cassio because of the lack of communication in their relationship. According to Irene Dash, she recognizes inShow MoreRelatedWilliam ShakespeareS Utilization Of Dialect Still Moves1664 Words   |  7 PagesWilliam Shakespeare s utilization of dialect still moves gatherings of people today, after 400 years. Four centuries of world-history, flooding with life, love, disaster, and misfortune, have breathed easy set the last accentuation stamp on Shakespeare s work. Researchers have concentrated his legacy, looking for a comprehension of why despite everything we give it a second thought, and, how it s conceivable that the plays have been performed in practically every dialect. Aside from his conspicuousRead MoreWhat It Look Like By Terrance Hayes Essay1580 Words   |  7 Pagesa poem that stresses the impact that racism has on the African American community. The speaker successfully portrays the obvious discrimination that blacks experience and that the white community does not know that they have power. Through the examination of the deeper and apparent meaning, powerful emotions and connections to society, the speaker is able to craft the argument that exposes white power and discrimination towards blacks. Terrance Hayes uses a unique word choice to show the readersRead MoreWilliam Shakespeare s Othello : Race And Performance6373 Words   |  26 PagesPAGE 1 Pass Ilari Pass ENGL 400 Seminar: Literature and Ethics Hood 7 November 2014 Barbary Horse: Race and Performance in Othello Ethics never went out of fashion in philosophy. It did, however, in literary studies. In Critical Terms for Literary Study, Geoffrey Galt Harpham asks, ?What is ethics? The answers to this simple inquiry are complexity itself, for they take us straight to the decentered center of ethics, its concern for ?the other (394). According to Harpham, Read More Locating Macbeth at the Thresholds of Time, Space and Spiritualism 2629 Words   |  11 Pages‘right’, does not conform to the prevailing ideological norm. Written in the late twentieth century, his work is a treatise about the wider cultural effects produced by a policy of confinement of the social outsider. Three centuries earlier, William Shakespeare completed and staged what are now considered the greatest and most evil of all his tragedies, the tragedy of Macbeth. Themes of witchcraft, infanticide, suicide and death pervade the fabric of the play, which possibly contributes to the theatricalRead MoreOthello, By William Shakespeare2395 Words   |  10 PagesWilliam Shakespeare’s Othello, uses various events and techniques to express the nature of evil throughout the entire play. In Othello, Iago is portrayed as the main villain or the antagonist in the play. Despite the fact that the play is named Othello, it is the character of Iago that drives the action within the entire play. Shakespeare utilizes Iago to set the stage for evil in the play. In each interaction with a character in Othello, Iago finds a way to be manipulative and evil. â€Å"In the firstRead MoreA Reflection On Reading Visual Culture2407 Words   |  10 Pagescan add to a representation (Williams, 2010). In China for instance, where green used to be considered beautiful in the Tang Dynasty (Moss, 2015), the colour itself now represents disgrace (Williams, 2010). In English speaking cultures, green is also associated with envy, a powerful and negative emotion which can control a person (Parrot Smith, 1993). Green was first associated with envy when Shakespeare referred to it in Othello as â€Å"The green-eyed monster† (Shakespeare, 1603) and has been used forRead MorePlay Macbeth11979 Words   |  48 Pagesfallen, Macbeth tells Macduff to Lay on. Macbeth sinks into a slough of evil, his mind becomes disordered, yet in the final step, his warriors instinct returns to him. MacBeth - Attitude Changes In the tragic drama Macbeth, written by William Shakespeare in 1606 during the English Renaissance, the hero, Macbeth, constantly declines in his level of morality until his death at the end of the play. Because of his change of character from good to evil, Macbeths attitude towards other charactersRead MorePlay Macbeth11985 Words   |  48 PagesMacbeth tells Macduff to Lay on. Macbeth sinks into a slough of evil, his mind becomes disordered, yet in the final step, his warriors instinct returns to him. MacBeth - Attitude Changes In the tragic drama Macbeth, written by William Shakespeare in 1606 during the English Renaissance, the hero, Macbeth, constantly declines in his level of morality until his death at the end of the play. Because of his change of character from good to evil, Macbeths attitude towards other charactersRead MoreGp Essay Mainpoints24643 Words   |  99 Pagesmodification 2f. Right tech for wrong reasons Intro: †¢ General Omar Bradley, Commander of the US forces, once ominously declared, â€Å"Ours is a world of nuclear giants and ethical infants†. (double-edged sword) Wrong reason 1: Cursory examination of topic †¦ indubitably draw one’s attention †¦ race between countries to boost military right †¢ Cognizant of the need to maintain a powerful arsenal of weapons to deter potential aggressors †¢ Threaten other countries w=or serve as form of

Anorexia Nervos A Severe Mental Illness - 1974 Words

Anorexia nervosa is a severe mental illness which carries mental, physical and psychological consequences. It is often characterised by low body weight and image distortion, along with obsessive concerns and fears about the gaining of weight.(1) This constant anxiety of weight gain manifests itself through the deprivation of food and excessive exercise. Anorexia Nervosa can broken down further into the restricting type where weight loss is achieved through the restriction of calories,(2) or the purging type where vomiting, laxatives and diuretics(2) are used to gain the similar outcomes. Both of these types have severe impacts on an individuals health and knowledge of the symptoms, care and impacts it has is imperative. Anorexia nervosa†¦show more content†¦These all influence on an individuals mental health and can all put a person at risk of anorexia nervosa. Anorexia has early signs and symptoms that become evident after the mental illness begins to take its toll. The beginning of anorexia nervosa is often recognised through warning signs which, if recognised early, can ultimately save an individual from developing deeply into this mental illness. Some danger signs that should be looked out for are rapid weight loss of greater than 10% of healthy weight, an increase in vomiting and exercise, dizziness, fainting, disorientation and also chest pain.(6) These early warning signs eventually worsen and that is when the symptoms of anorexia become even more evident. These symptoms can be broken down into physical, psychological and behavioural categories. A physical symptom impacts on the physiological, or normal functioning of an individual and these are mostly to do with malnutrition. Symptoms can include excessive weight loss without a logical reason, failure to begin a menstrual cycle and loss of libido, fatigue and in worse conditions hea rt problems and kidney failure.(7) The physical symptoms are often easily recognised and are important to look out for in an individual with suspected anorexia. The psychological effects that anorexia nervosa have on an individual are detrimental to their mental health and put their emotional state at risk.

Vulnerability Severity Prediction A Metric -Myassignmenthelp.Com

Question: Discuss About The Vulnerability Severity Prediction A Metric? Answer: Introduction Computer software vulnerability can be considered as threats that have been playing a very much vital role in every sphere related to the concept of management technology. Relating to when a breach takes place the first question which arises in the mind is that who is mainly gained from the incident. The answers are mainly the attackers to initiate the attack. The main concept is breaking into the system and stealing information or money, this task is considered to be very much easy from the side of the attacker and profitable also (Li et al. 2017). To be very much precise a software vulnerability can be stated as a flaw within a software product that can cause it deviation from the proper working and tend to lend the control of the entire software in the hand of the hackers who focus mainly to deliver profit on his basis from the vulnerability which is detected in the software and its peripherals. This report directly puts emphasis on the concept of the vulnerable which is related to the software and what stands in the way of delivering a software which does not face any issue related to vulnerability. The main point of emphasis is the issue which are taken into account after a vulnerability is taken into account bringing into limelight the different tactics that are followed in order to resolve the issue and take necessary steps to reduce the after affect. Loss due to exploitation Taking into consideration the complex communication system and information gives rise to implementation, design and management errors. These errors can directly lead to the concept of vulnerability. The term vulnerability can be used to describe a flaw in the information technology product that could be mainly used for the exploitation of the product. There can be several methods which can be included in the term of exploitation. Exploitation can be classified on the type of vulnerability they intent to attack. Few example which can be included in this concept are: Buffer overflow: in terms of computer security and programming the term buffer overflow or buffer overrun can be stated as an anomaly with regards to a program, while mainly the action of writing data to a buffer, overruns the boundary of the buffer and overwrites the accounting location of the memory (Rahimi and Zargham 2017). Situation a: when the main program is running Situation b: after the program A is called Situation c: buffer overflow concept which is shown in grey Memory corruption The concept of the memory corruption usually occurs in the computer program when the overall content of the memory location is unintentionally modified. It can be referred to as a violation of the memory safety ( Li et al. 2017). Race condition The race condition can be considered as situation which is undesirable that mainly occur when a device of a system mainly attempts to perform two or more operations with regards to the same instance of time, but due to the factor of nature of the device or the system, the operation should be done in the proper sequence in order to do it correctly. SQL injection is mainly considered as a code technique of injection which is mainly done to attack the data driven application, in which the nefarious statement of the SQL is injected into an entry field with the intention of execution. The main classification of the exploits can also be done on how the exploit contacts with the vulnerable software (Rahimi and Zargham 2017). There are mainly two types which can be involved in the concept, one being remote exploit and the other being local exploit. A remote exploit works mainly over a predefined network with the intention of exploiting the security vulnerability and on the other hand the local exploit requires the access prior to the vulnerable system and which usually increase the privileges in regards to the person running the main action of the exploit (Sibal, Sharma and Sabharwal 2017). Mainly due to the popularity in the concept of the internet, the network borne virus which are the computer virus and the worms can be termed as the main forms of exploitation. Taking into consideration a computer worm, it can the ability of self-replicating itself and can be considered as a self-contained exploitation. The computer worm can spread from one system to another system without the intervention of human activity ( Spanos et al. 2016). Onm the other hand a computer virus requires the action on the part of the user, for example emails attachments etc. the computer worms and the virus can be termed as a most cited example form of exploitation which has achieved overall 82% of the activity. The reco9very aspect which is related to the case are that almost 33% of the victim recovered from the attack in one day, 30% recovered in a tenure of one to seven days and 37% took more than a weeks time to recover completely from the attack ( Li et al. 2017). Exploits can also be classified on the concept of the main purpose of the attack and the main intention behind the attack. Few of the example which can be related in this type of classification are: personal frame (trespasser), curiosity (vandal), personal gain(thief) and interest of national (spy). The slammer, blaster and the code red attack mainly infected millions and millions of computer all over the world, it can be considered as very much expensive in order to recover from the incident. In recent times the attack which I s related to the personal gain can be considered as one of the most fastest growing sectors in the segment (Sibal, Sharma and Sabharwal 2017). These exploits can be terms of email phasing, email spam, keystroke loggers, bots and credential theft. Taking into consideration this types of attack many of the people who are victim of the attack are spoofed, where more than 60% of the victim visited the spoofed site and more than 15% have mainly admitted of giving t heir personal data to unwanted resources. Vulnerability disclosers types Taking into account a software vulnerability, each and every software vulnerability can be stated as different mainly on the basis of the process by which the flaws are mainly discovered to the ways in which the vulnerability is disclosed. There can be few categories in which the software vulnerability can be classified which are: The first discloser type which is taken into account is the non-discloser. This discloser is probably the easiest type of discloser which can be described and on the other hand quantification is very much difficult. In the case of this type of discloser, the researchers have discovered a vulnerability concept in a piece of a software, rather than the contact the software vendors or the security of the computer authority coordinating the event, the researchers mainly kept the concept of the vulnerability a mere secret. The community which is mainly involved in this type of practice are the black hat hackers. The concept of quantification which is very much difficult is due to the fact of the paradox that are no ways in which measurement of the flaws can be obtained but not disclosed (Sibal, Sharma and Sabharwal 2017). Based on the communication model it can be estimated that up to 17.3% of the finding of the vulnerability were not disclosed, however the statement of the how many vulnerabilities were discovered but remain undisclosed is a very important point of consideration in such a case. There was fairly a huge amount of critic on the concept of the vulnerability, the main point of concern is that the system remains open to the vulnerability even though the vulnerability is known, the main reason of this fact is that the vendors lack of publicity concept in the vulnerability may not be motivating on the point of the software vendors in order to repair the flaws immediately when it is known. Others variations which are taken into account on the non-discloser method tend to have the sam e result at the net end of the process which include greater risk towards the user in the point of view of the exploitation of the vulnerability. For example, it can be state that a researcher may find out any sort of vulnerability in a piece of software, the result of the action is taken in such a way that apart from reporting the vulnerability to the concerned authority the attackers would directly share the vulnerability which is involved in the software with other hackers which directly increase the risk associated to the user which are termed as the end user in this case (Joh and Malaiya 2016). Full discloser When a researchers find out a vulnerability they tend to inform the community at a whole about the vulnerability and mainly specifies how the vulnerability is found out, which software products can be affected by such vulnerability and the overall affect which is involved in due to the incident. On the broader sense they also tend to focus on the points on how the to exploit the flaws and how to protect the system against being a victim of the vulnerability. There can be many arguments against the main concept of the full discloser vulnerability in the sense that the total argument is taken into interest of the attackers and the informing the community about the attack. The main argument can be stated in two different way notability the first being that it is very much unethical to inform the community as a whole about the software flaws which are involved as soon as it is detected even before any patch is taken into economics in order to reduce the overall impact of the vulnerabilit y so that from the users point of view they can protect themselves. The second point of emphasis is that tactic motive in regards to the vendors of the software as when a software flaw is detected is to sit behind and acknowledge the event and informs the community about that an event has taken place rather than trying to generated some sort of patches in order to reduce the overall impact of the attack. One of the advantage that is faced in concept to the full discloser that when a flaw is detected the credit goes to the researchers on the incident of detecting the flaw. The credit goes directly in the hand of the researchers. Clearly it can be stated that incentives and the motivation which is related to the security industry being for personal or professional, the full discloser can be considered as a discloser technique that can be a field of attraction for the researchers of the security (Ghaffarian, S.M. and Shahriari 2017). On the other hand, the argument against the category of the full discloser method tend to go parallel with the full discloser. It can be seen that one of the most silent argument which usually takes place with the incident is that the exposing part of the vulnerability without the proper consultation with the software vendor related to the main event, this may directly result in increase of the risk being widespread in the point of view of the user of the system of the computer (Joh and Malaiya 2016). A very common example which can be related to the incident is that with few days or hours following the detection of the vulnerability a full script is ready and very much available for the script Kiddes toc consume and use the concept. Additionally, taking into account the vendors are not informed on the first hand about the vulnerability and the incident and main emphasis is put on informing the community about the incident, the work on the patches and the security measures that shoul d be implemented takes very much time, the testing phase which is related to any software flaws can take time to about few days before a patch van be launched in order to reduce the overall effect of the vulnerability. So it can have stated that there always lies a big window in which the user or the community is informed about the flaws but no patches or security measures are involved in the process to lack of information which is landed to the vendors in order for them to work on it and provide the necessary patches to the community or the users in order to protect them (Ghaffarian, S.M. and Shahriari 2017). Responsible discloser This can be termed as a final step of the discloser. The responsible discloser mainly falls into what can be stated as a class of vulnerability which can be known as partial discloser or in simple terms limited discloser. The responsible discloser may be stated as a policy of software discloser in which software vulnerability are mainly disclosed in a manner with the intention of putting the user at a minimum risk stage without the alteration related to the stifling the research security community. To make the term simple, when a vulnerability is detected in any software the researchers directly inform the vendors who are related to the software, and if the vendors in some cases are not responsive to the event , the researchers takes the overall control over the event and proceed with it. The main stages that are followed in this type of disclosers are as follows: The researchers first step after discovering of the flaw is to inform the vendors about the vulnerability (Shin and Williams 2016). If the vendors quickie responds the event and acknowledges the flaw and credit the researchers in order of identify the flaw and conduct the testing phase on the flaw and immediately after the testing issue of the patch related to the flaw is made the process can be stated to be complete. On the other hand, if the vendors do not respond quickly enough to the flaw or mainly fail to continue the communication related to the event, the originator has no other option than to proceed with the public discloser without the vendors direct intervention in the event of no patches being supplied. Taking into account both the scenarios, the concept of when the vulnerability is detected the principle should be to response quickly to the flaws. This can be done on the point of view of the vendors and also on the point of view of the researchers who have identified the issue and work on the always so that the common people are not affected to much by the incident (Joh and Malaiya 2016). Cost related issue The cost of the software vulnerability towards the vendor can be broadly be classified mainly into two categories: the cost of distributing a patch for the defect and loss of cost sales due to the factor of dissatisfaction from the point of view of the customer. Cost of patch: the cost which is relating to fixing any sort of problem after the release of the software can be considered to be always on the higher point than the cost of fixing a problem prior to the release of the software. It can be estimated that the cost of fixing any problem after the realise is eight times more than prior to the release. Researchers have found out that fixing a bug after a realise is very much difficult and time consuming then prior to the release. Taking an example of one of the giants in the field of technology Microsoft, the company spends nearly $100000 on an average for the security related issue in order to distribute patch for any fault which is detected. However, the cost of the releasing aspect of each of the patches can be on a lower end by distributing the patches online Cost of loss related to sales: software vulnerability can directly lead to customer dissatisfaction, loss of reputation of the vendor and disruption. Defective software can superimpose many types of problem related to the user as stated below: The breaches which occur due to software may lead to disruption, downfall as well as compromised information which is related to confidentiality. Using of defective software from the point of view of the user can impose many types of cost related issue. The magnitude of the second point which is discussed above can be directly be related to the Amount of loss which is generated from the point of view of the customers. Moreover, putting emphasis on the vendors they can future loss many of the users due to users avoidance in order of buying the product and with the existing customers delay can purchase can be exhibited due to the insecurity which is seen in the product. It can also be stated that the software products have largest cost related issue when relating to the switching which makes it difficult for the users to switch between the vendors. Therefore, the cost related to the sales lost depends mainly on the market structure as well. Conclusion The report puts direct emphasis on a contemporary and interesting issue of whether vendors of the software are adversely affected by the security issue related vulnerability which is related to the software products. It can be stated that due to the unique characteristics of the software industry in the near future the damage which is imposed on the vendors point of view on an event of a software vulnerability would be very much minimal and unneglectable. The vulnerability issue which is related to the software product can be state to be very much on a higher side if after the detection of the vulnerability no patches or security measures are involved in the process. there should be always a high end testing of the vulnerability and why it is caused so that the end users are not affected by such events. On the other hand the report also states that the cost related to the include patches after the release of a software is always on a higher hand, so it must always be taken into consi deration that the testing and other security issue related problems are solved before the software is in the hand of the common users. This would be directly beneficial from the point of view of the vendors as well as the user of the software. References Alves, H., Fonseca, B. and Antunes, N., 2016, September. Software Metrics and Security Vulnerabilities: Dataset and Exploratory Study. In Dependable Computing Conference (EDCC), 2016 12th European (pp. 37-44). IEEE. Anand, P., 2016, August. Overview of Root Causes of Software Vulnerabilities-Technical and User-Side Perspectives. In Software Security and Assurance (ICSSA), 2016 International Conference on (pp. 70-74). IEEE. Cai, J., Zou, P., Ma, J. and He, J., 2016. SwordDTA: A dynamic taint analysis tool for software vulnerability detection. Wuhan University Journal of Natural Sciences, 21(1), pp.10-20. Dam, H.K., Tran, T., Pham, T., Ng, S.W., Grundy, J. and Ghose, A., 2017. Automatic feature learning for vulnerability prediction. arXiv preprint arXiv:1708.02368. Ghaffarian, S.M. and Shahriari, H.R., 2017. Software Vulnerability Analysis and Discovery Using Machine-Learning and Data-Mining Techniques: A Survey. ACM Computing Surveys (CSUR), 50(4), p.56. Hovsepyan, A., Scandariato, R. and Joosen, W., 2016, September. Is Newer Always Better?: The Case of Vulnerability Prediction Models. In Proceedings of the 10th ACM/IEEE International Symposium on Empirical Software Engineering and management (p. 26). ACM. Hovsepyan, A., Scandariato, R., Joosen, W. and Walden, J., 2017, September. Software vulnerability prediction using text analysis techniques. In Proceedings of the 4th international workshop on Security measurements and metrics (pp. 7-10). ACM. Jimenez, M., Papadakis, M. and Le Traon, Y., 2016, October. Vulnerability Prediction Models: A case study on the Linux Kernel. In Source Code Analysis and Manipulation (SCAM), 2016 IEEE 16th International Working Conference on (pp. 1-10). IEEE. Joh, H. and Malaiya, Y.K., 2016. Periodicity in software vulnerability discovery, patching and exploitation. International Journal of Information Security, pp.1-18. Lagerstrm, R., Baldwin, C., MacCormack, A., Sturtevant, D. and Doolan, L., 2017, July. Exploring the Relationship Between Architecture Coupling and Software Vulnerabilities. In International Symposium on Engineering Secure Software and Systems (pp. 53-69). Springer, Cham. Li, H., Kwon, H., Kwon, J. and Lee, H., 2016. CLORIFI: software vulnerability discovery using code clone verification. Concurrency and Computation: Practice and Experience, 28(6), pp.1900-1917. Li, X., Chang, X., Board, J.A. and Trivedi, K.S., 2017, January. A novel approach for software vulnerability classification. 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An empirical model to predict security vulnerabilities using code complexity metrics. In Proceedings of the Second ACM-IEEE international symposium on Empirical software engineering and measurement (pp. 315-317). ACM. Shin, Y., Meneely, A., Williams, L. and Osborne, J.A., 2016. Evaluating complexity, code churn, and developer activity metrics as indicators of software vulnerabilities. IEEE Transactions on Software Engineering, 37(6), pp.772-787. Sibal, R., Sharma, R. and Sabharwal, S., 2017. Prioritizing software vulnerability types using multi-criteria decision-making techniques. Life Cycle Reliability and Safety Engineering, 6(1), pp.57-67. Spanos, G., Angelis, L. and Kosmidou, K., 2017. Is the Marketing Value of Software Vendors Affected by Software Vulnerability Announcements?. In Strategic Innovative Marketing (pp. 465-469). Springer, Cham. Spanos, G., Angelis, L. and Kosmidou, K., 2017. Is the Market Value of Software Vendors Affected by Software Vulnerability Announcements?. In Strategic Innovative Marketing (pp. 465-469). Springer, Cham. Stuckman, J., Walden, J. and Scandariato, R., 2017. The Effect of Dimensionality Reduction on Software Vulnerability Prediction Models. IEEE Transactions on Reliability, 66(1), pp.17-37. Sultana, K.Z., Deo, A. and Williams, B.J., 2016, June. A preliminary study examining relationships between nano-patterns and software security vulnerabilities. In Computer Software and Applications Conference (COMPSAC), 2016 IEEE 40th Annual (Vol. 1, pp. 257-262). IEEE. Sultana, K.Z., Deo, A. and Williams, B.J., 2017, January. Correlation Analysis among Java Nano-Patterns and Software Vulnerabilities. In High Assurance Systems Engineering (HASE), 2017 IEEE 18th International Symposium on (pp. 69-76). IEEE. Yang, J., Ryu, D. and Baik, J., 2016, January. Improving vulnerability prediction accuracy with secure coding standard violation measures. In Big Data and Smart Computing (BigComp), 2016 International Conference on (pp. 115-122). IEEE. 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World in 2050 free essay sample

However, even in 2050 average income per capita will still be significantly higher in the advanced economies than in the emerging economies – the current income gap is just too large to bridge fully over this period. In contrast to recent arguments by Professor Robert Gordon and some other commentators 1 , we do not expect a significant slowdown in the global pace of technical progress given the scope for further major advances in areas like ICT, biotechnology and nanotechnology, although emerging economies like China and India will play an increasing role in these developments in future decades. This will further fuel their catch-up process with the more sluggish advanced economies. 1 As discussed further in Section 4. 1 below. The BRICs and beyond: prospects, challenges and opportunities PwC ? 2 World in 2050 1. 3. Opportunities and challenges for business These projected long-term growth trends pose many opportunities and challenges for businesses in the UK and other Western economies. China, India, Brazil and the other emerging markets highlighted in our study will become not just low cost production locations but also increasingly large consumer markets. We will write a custom essay sample on World in 2050 or any similar topic specifically for you Do Not WasteYour Time HIRE WRITER Only 13.90 / page At a time when trend annual growth is projected to be no more than around 2% in the advanced economies, companies seeking growth will need to look increasingly to these emerging markets. At the same time, such markets can be challenging places to do business. It will be important to understand and adapt to local rules, regulations and customs. The right entry strategy and, where appropriate, the right joint venture partner(s) will be crucial, as will good relations with local government and regulatory bodies. In some cases, the optimal production locations may not be the same as the largest consumer markets (e. g. investing in Malaysia, Indonesia or Vietnam as a gateway to China or India, or in Poland as a gateway to Russia). 1. 4. Energy use and climate change: too late for 2 degrees? There are also important challenges for governments, not least regarding natural resource constraints such as those relating to energy use and climate change. As our analysis shows, a ‘business as usual’ approach based on our GDP growth projections could see global warming of 6? C or more in the long run, while the UN’s 2?C objective seems increasingly out of reach given the lack of progress on decarbonisation since 2000. A more plausible and affordable ‘gradual greening’ scenario might see decarbonisation at a rate sufficient to broadly offset the effects on emissions of economic growth, so leaving total global carbon emissions in 2050 at similar levels to today. But even t his scenario would still be consistent with 4 degrees of global warming in the long run – it may already be too late for 2 degrees as our latest Low Carbon Economy Index report discusses in more detail. 2 Such climate change will in itself create new opportunities for business, however, for example in mitigating the risks from severe weather events in parallel with developing new greener technologies. 2 http://www. pwc. co. uk/sustainability-climate-change/publications/low-carbon-economy-index. jhtml The BRICs and beyond: prospects, challenges and opportunities PwC ? 3 World in 2050 2. Introduction 2. 1. Background on the 2050 reports In March 2006 we produced a report setting out projections for potential GDP growth in 17 leading economies over the period to 20503. These countries were: ? The G7 (US, Japan, Germany, UK, France, Italy and Canada), plus Australia, South Korea and Spain among the current advanced economies; and ? the seven largest emerging market economies, which we refer to collectively as the ‘E7’ (China, India, Brazil, Russia, Indonesia, Mexico and Turkey). There projections were updated in March 2008 and January 2011, expanding the country sample in the latter case to cover all of the G20 economies by adding Argentina, South Africa and Saudi Arabia. We also included Vietnam and Nigeria as potential fast-growing ‘wild cards’ outside of the G20. We are now revisiting these long-term GDP projections two years on from our last report and extending the sample to include Poland (as the leading EU economy in the Central and Eastern European region) and Malaysia (as a potential fast-growing medium-sized economy within the Asia-Pacific region that may provide a suitable launch pad for some Western companies investing in the region). Our analysis suggests that this group of 24 countries, which currently account for more than 80% of total world GDP, should include the 20 largest economies in the world looking ahead to the middle of this century. 2. 2. Our modelling approach We use World Bank GDP data up to 2011 and our own medium term projections for real GDP growth between 2012 and 2017. We then use our long-term economic model to estimate trend growth rates from 2018 to 2050. These longer term trend growth estimates are driven by the following key factors (see Appendix A for more details). Growth in the population of working age (based on the latest UN population projections). ? Increases in human capital, proxied here by average education levels across the adult population. ? Growth in the physical capital stock, which is driven by capital investment net of depreciation. ? Total factor productivity growth, which is driven by technological progress and catching up by lower income countries with richer ones by making use of the latter’s technologies and processes. The emerging economies have stronger potential growth than the current advanced economies on most of these measures, although it should be stressed that this assumes that they continue to follow broadly growth-friendly policies. In this sense, the projections are of potential future GDP if such policies are followed, rather than unconditional predictions of what will actually happen, bearing in mind that not all of these countries may be able to sustain such policies in the long run in practice. There are, of course, many uncertainties surrounding these long-term growth projections, so more attention should be paid to the broad trends indicated rather than the precise numbers quoted in the rest of this report. The broad conclusions reached on the shift in global economic power from the G7 to the E7 emerging economies should, however, be robust to these uncertainties, provided that there are no catastrophic shocks (e. g. global nuclear war, asteroid collisions, extreme global climate change etc) that derail the overall global economic development process on a sustained basis. Such shocks should be distinguished from shorter term cyclical variations, which will inevitably occur to a greater or less degree in all economies, but should not materially alter underlying average trend growth rates over the four decade period that we are considered. 3 Some of our earlier World in 2050 series reports are available here: http://www. pwc. com/gx/en/world-2050/index. jhtml The BRICs and beyond: prospects, challenges and opportunities PwC ? 4 World in 2050 2. 3. What has changed since the January 2011 update? We have made three main changes to the analysis since our last published update in January 2011: 1. We have updated historical data in the model so that the base year is now 2011 rather than 2009. Our medium term projections to 2017 also take account of the slowdown seen in most economies in 2011-12, although this does not have a large impact on the longer term trend growth rates projected by the model for the period beyond 2017. 2. We have added Malaysia and Poland to the analysis and include commentaries by senior PwC economists from these two countries in Section 3. 4 below. 3. We have improved the way in which long-run exchange rate trends are modelled. A country’s real exchange rate trend is still determined by convergence towards the PPP equilibrium rate as they grow richer, but the basis for this convergence assumption is now anchored more firmly in historic trends. 2. 4. Structure of this report The rest of the report is structured as follows: